Saturday Bowl Games

North Carolina +2–The Tarheels have had a great season and WV has been up and down. the heels can finish off the season with a big win here and they should keep Pat White in check.Big problem for Mountaineers is 3-12 ATS mark away from home vs. ACC foes.

Carolina on the other hand has some good things in their favor.Coach Butch Davis teams are 6-0 ATS after no-cover in two out of three affairs.North Carolina is 12-13 and 9-6-1 ATS in bowls, with West Virginia 12-16 and desultory 6-12-1 ATS, including 0-4 against the number as favorites. The ACC has won and covered five of the six Car Care bowls with the Big East 1-4 SU and ATS.

Wisconsin +5.5

This is a play on experience as the Badgers have a ton of senior talent in this game, the other team with this much senior leadership was FAU and you were able to see what they did last night.Wisconsin is 6-3 ATS as bowl underdog and will attack the Noles run defense which was exploited in November for 192.6 yards per game. The Badgers run all over Bowden and the Noles!

California -10

This is a big number but with a ton of suspensions and little motivation, Miami is in trouble.

The Canes are just 4-12 ATS after the first month of the season over the last two seasons,and they will be facing a hostile crowd with Cal right down the street.Cal is 11-1 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points over the last three seasons.Cal wins in a laugher!

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Motor City Bowl

Motor City Bowl

Florida Atlantic vs. Central Michigan

Florida Atlantic comes into this contest as the third team that finished the season at 6-6 and has been granted access to a bowl game. The Owls of Florida Atlantic are no slouches though when it comes to bowl games. Head coach Schnellenberger took over the program in 2001 when they didn’t have a football team. He is 5-0 SU & ATS in bowls, including last years 44-27 win over Memphis in the New Orleans Bowl and he knows how to motivate his kids for a big game.

Central Michigan will be stopping at the Motor City bowl for the third time in the last three years and this will provide an incredible home field for them. Central Michigan stumbled down the stretch losing the last two games and that cost them a shot at another MAC title and instead has forced them to try and get up for the Owls the day after Christmas. The Owls did not even know if they were going to make it to a bowl game and had to win 5 of 6 down the stretch to get here and are pleased to be here.

Our first system of the year gets involved here and it is all about experience as the Owls are returning 18 players from last year’s squad and experience is vital in a bowl game. Here is the system:

Play On - Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points - in non-conference games, with 17 or more total starters returning.
(70-30 since 1992.)

The situation's record this season is: (8-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (20-12).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (28-13).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (41-18).

Florida Atlantic is 10-1 ATS versus poor pass defenses - allowing a completion percentage of 58 percent or worse. FAU is 6-0 ATS after allowing 37+ points and Central Michigan is 2-10 ATS after allowing 375+ passing yards. Take the Owls plus the points!

Florida Atlantic +6

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Poinsettia Bowl

Poinsettia Bowl

TCU vs. Boise St.






TCU played a good schedule and finished with a very impressive 10-2 record and some key wins along the way. Boise St finished undefeated at 12-0 but were overlooked by the BCS folks and Utah got the coveted invite to play against Alabama. The question will be would this motivate Boise St or depress them as instead of a BCS game they play TCU in San Diego.

The Frogs faced 5 bowl-caliber teams and went 3-2 SU but 2-3 ATS outscoring those opponents 22-14 & out gaining them 392-274. BSU faced 8 bowl eligible teams and went 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS outscoring them by 20 ppg and out gaining them by 97 ypg. The bottom lie is both these teams are good teams and if not for Utah they both could be in a better position. Utah beat TCU on a last second play and they remained undefeated zipping by Boise to the BCS.

The snub was taken harder by Boise St and in a match up of two good teams I like to focus on the defensive side of the ball. The defense for TCU has been outstanding and has allowed 7 or more points in just five games this season. The frogs have a huge defensive line and know how to apply pressure and shut down a good offense. In fact only one team this year has scored over 14 against them and that was Oklahoma and they just held them to 35 points.

Motivation is on the side of TCU to win this game and knock out an undefeated team. The line says the rest. The line itself also speaks volumes as an undefeated Boise Team finds themselves as 2 point dogs. TCU is 8-2 ATS as favorite and
23-12 ATS in all games. TCU has covered six of its last seven as favorites of up to three points and 25 of 34 as the chalk overall. The Frogs have also cashed five of seven against WAC foes.

TCU Horned Frogs -2.5

New Orleans Bowl

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New Orleans Bowl


This is a rarity for a bowl game because you get the Golden Eagles of Southern Mississippi in this game and they finished at 6-6 and will not even have a winning record. Troy on the other hand has a winning record and won the Sun Belt Conference and head towards another New Orleans bowl.

One does have to give credit to the Golden Eagles though because they started the season horribly with a 2-6 start but ended very strongly nailing four in a row, straight up and against the spread to get this bowl appearance. In those four wins the Eagles dominated winning by a combined score 35-9.

When it comes to this game you have to look at more than motivation because distractions could be a huge disadvantage for some teams with Bourbon Street calling. Troy has already acknowledged it and all it has to offer. "I am going to stay away from Bourbon Street until after the game," junior linebacker Bear Woods said. "That is just me, though."

Brown said that will be the key for the entire team.

"The key is probably to not stay out too late before the game," Brown said. "I am not really a young guy, but this is my first time to go to a bowl game, and that is what some of the guys have told us. We have great senior leaders on this team and they have helped the rest of us know what to expect once we get there." That is easier said then done when you’re in New Orleans. Troy has been here before and is giving little respect to the Eagles and so is most of the country, but watch out in this game. Troy has had problems finishing and Southern Miss has a first year coach in Fedora will make sure they are ready for this game.

Southern Mississippi is 6-2 ATS versus Sun Belt foes and they are 4-0 ATS their last four games and they are 5-0 ATS after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their last game. This game will be much closer than the experts think.

Pick: Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles +4

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Las Vegas Bowl

BYU vs. Arizona

The location of this game is in sin city and you would think that would make for a home field advantage for the Arizona Wildcats since they are so close, but that is not the case. BYU has such a huge following so you can expect the fans to travel as they have in the past when the cougars have played in this game. This game is going to be on turf and you think that would play in favor for BYU but they are just 9-17 ATS on turf since 1993.

BYU’s motivation may be a bit questioned in this game as they looked like they may be heading to the BCS game but dropped games to TCU and Utah down the stretch and have faltered and wanted to play in a bigger bowl game than this. BYU is 4-20 ATS after 2-game road trip and they come into this one flat disappointed it just two weeks to throw away what could have been the perfect season.

On the other hand this is the first bowl game for Arizona in ten years! That gives them the motivation edge in this game and if you read any of our other previews you would know that this is something we lean heavily on. Arizona is excited to play in this game and it shows that the future is bright for the wild cats.

BYU has been a cash burner all year as they have failed miserably against the number at 3-8 ATS. They are also just 1-6 ATS after a conference game and the wildcats are 4-1 with two weeks of rest or more. That shows that they know how to prepare for a game when giving enough time. We have the interesting situation of a team that is unranked in Arizona being favored over a team that is ranked seventeenth in the country. The odds maker knows what they are doing and we feel the same way so we will go with the Wildcats to get the bowl win!

Arizona -2

St. Petersburg Bowl

St. Petersburg Bowl

Memphis vs. South Florida

Seems like the same song and dance for the South Florida Bulls. In the early season they are rated highly and projected by many to make a splash in the season win the Big East and do well. They start the season off by winning and winning big, then are upset and fade away as the season goes on. This has to wear on the team as they see it happening all over again. They went from title contender to falling off the map just like they did last year. When that happened last year they went into a bowl game and got squashed in a big way by Oregon losing 56-21. Things could look bleak again this year as they face off against the Memphis Tigers and they are 3-1 ATS when the play the Bulls. The only good news is that the Bulls are playing close to home.

The Memphis rushing attack has been fantastic this season. RB Curtis Steele leads the squad with 1,175 rushing yards and seven scores. The Tigers’ offense ranks 19^th in the NCAA on the ground with 205.6 rushing yards per game. They face a daunting task however going up against one of the tougher run defenses in South Florida. Excluding New year day games, dogs of 12 points are more are 9-2 ATS in the last 11 games since 1996.

This is one of the easiest examples of a team that is just not motivated to play in a bowl game and when it comes to bowl games, motivation is huge! We are taking the Tigers and the big spread in this one with a decent running attack. South Florida without motivation will be a tough team to lay this kind of points with and they are just 2-4 ATS in the last six games in December and 3-7 ATS as a favorite this year.

Memphis +12

Saturday Bowl Mania

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New Mexico Bowl

Fresno St vs. Colorado St.

The second game in the bowl schedule is the complete polar opposite of the first one as the Bulldogs of Fresno St take on the Rams of Colorado St. The first thing that jumps out at us is the fact that the Bulldogs have been burning money all year long for Bulldog backers as they are just 10-26 ATS in the last 36 lined games that they have played in.

The good news is Pat Hill knows how to get his team excited at the end of the season and they often show up and play well near the end of the season. They run into a Ram team that is powerless against any offense as they put up very bad numbers, especially on the road. In this season's six road games, they allowed an average of 36.8 points and 423.3 total yards. The Rams offense hasn't been very good either, as they're averaging only 23.9 points, including just 21 on the road.

The special teams will be a huge factor in this one as the Bulldogs are number one in the country in blocked kicks. They also sport a huge offensive line that was great at setting up lanes for runners and protecting the Quarterback.

Colorado St put some impressive wins together to get to the bowl game to include an impressive win over Wyoming. Closer review of that game will show that they were out gained by Wyoming which is not a good sign.

The Bulldogs also lost head coach Pat Hill when he applied for the Washington job but at the last minute he bowed out of the competition saying he was committed to the program at Fresno and that will energize the kids and the fan base for this bowl game.

That’s good news for a Fresno St team that can score a lot of points and plays tough on a neutral field since the fans travel really well. The Rams are just 8-9 ATS on a neutral field and will be star struck as they play in this bowl game.

Fresno St. -3